Wanna Know A Secret?

June 2019 Revenue Report Issued

Wanna know a secret?

Missouri’s economy is very probably in a recession.

The Office Of Administration today released the June 2019 General Revenue Report.  The report covers all of Missouri’s Fiscal Year 2019.…

  1. Individual Income Tax receipts – a whopping 80% of all General Revenue – fell by 1.1% in FY 2019. 
  2. Sales Tax and Corporate tax receipts grew (together by $105 million), alas, not enough to offset the Income Tax loss.
  3. Refunds issued in FY19 decreased by 6.2%, though previous reporting by Bob Watson in Jefferson City noted that a lot of refunds still have to be paid.

Now, when Sales Tax collections grow by 1.8%  – right at the inflation rate  – and income tax revenue declines, well, your state economy is not healthy.   And, remember the lowest paid Missourians got raises in January to the new minimum wage of $8.60 an hour.  That action, impacting tens of thousands of Missouri earners, ought to have put many millions more into the income tax till.

For comparison, the June 2018 General Revenue Report showed total revenue up 5% and income tax receipts at +5.6%.  A 4% overall drop and a 6.7% decline in income tax collections sounds recessionary to me.

Let’s hold our breath for the July 2019 report – the first 31 days of Fiscal Year 2020 – due around August 4th.  If the new fiscal year shows continued declines in income tax revenue, well, expect the accidental governor to pull out a pair of scissors for the state budget.

Oh yes, due to the anemic numbers, Missourians will not get that promised 1/10th of 1% drop in the state income tax rate.   

June General Revenue Reports

Fiscal Year End Totals
                     2019               2018               2017

Total Revenue  $9.57 Billion(+1%)    $9.47 Billion(+5%)    $9.02 Billion
Income Tax     $7.65 Billion(-1.1%)  $7.73 Billion(+5.6%)  $7.32 Billion
Sales Tax      $2.24 Billion(+1.8%)  $2.2 Billion (+2.3%)  $2.15 Billion
Corp. Taxes    $526.6 Million(+14%)  $461.7 Million(+6.1%) $435 Million
Other          $518.3 Million(-2.8%) $533.2 Million(+.7%)  $529 Million
Refunds        $1.36 Billion (-6.2%) $1.45 Billion(+2.5%)  $1.42 Billion
              (Percentages reflect change from prior year.)

Sources:

https://oa.mo.gov/commissioners-office/news/state-releases-june-2019-general-revenue-report

https://oa.mo.gov/commissioners-office/news/state-releases-june-2018-general-revenue-report

 

Glenn Koenen