2023 & Beyond

Last Friday afternoon I spent $130 having our sewer line cleaned out with a “6” U Cutter.”  It wasn’t an emergency but, well, the line has history and I sensed time was short.

The next night, about dusk, I realized that the air conditioning was running but it was 83°F in the house…That was an emergency.  The repairman got to us around 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning and, just $254 later, we had cold air.

Meanwhile, on a local newscast they ran a story on all the folks way behind on their rent.  Near the end of the piece an expert advised people to “contact a local charity” if they needed help.

I long ago realized throwing things at the TV accomplished nothing.  Still, I’m amazed that a supposed expert can get on the news without explaining that:

  1. In the best of times, the vast majority of those with a legitimate need for rent help don’t get it;
  2. Back rent bills can quickly hit four figures where most charities which do help have limits of $100 or $250 or, at best, $500 per family;
  3. Monetary donations to charities drop during a recession; and,
  4. The current economic problems will be with us for at least three or four years.

If you need rent help now, there is a strong possibility you’ll need it again and again.

You see, we’ve been down this road before.  The Great Recession began in 2008.  By economists’ measures it ended by mid-2009. 

Yet, the impact lasted much, much longer.  For example, food stamp use here in Missouri spiked in 2008 and 2009, then established a plateau in 2010 which endured well into 2013.  (Go to Figure 6 & 7 on the food stamp section.)

Yes, the rich get back to being rich quickly after a recession.  The job and income losses among mere working folks last years.  And, as I recall from what I saw at Circle Of Concern, many of those left unemployed by the Great Recession never found as good a job as they had.

Back to my house.  My sewer line and air conditioner didn’t care if I had money in my checking account for unexpected expenses.

Missouri Poverty RatesIf I was among the hundreds of thousands of Missourians struggling to survive on unemployment and pandemic pay, well, maybe summer without air conditioning in St. Louis won’t be that bad.

Remember, that bonus pandemic pay ($600 a week) ends in seven weeks, at the end of July.  Missouri only allows a maximum of 20 weeks unemployment, so, those who lost work around St. Patrick’s Day will start running out of state benefits about the end of July too!

Raise you hand if you think the economy will be back to full employment by early August…please keep that hand up, I want to share information on a great investment in worm futures with you.

Anyway, here’s what I know.  A lot of working families will struggle for the next few years.  Charities will be pummeled by increased requests for help which far exceed their ability to respond.  The state and federal governments, along with experts, meanwhile will keep telling people to go to charities for help.

And, those sewer lines and air conditioners and refrigerators and cars just won’t care.  They’ll insist on breaking down.

Glenn