At the Oakville Democratic Organization meeting last Wednesday (held in beautiful Bee Tree Park), we basked in the victory of Amendment 2. Committeeman Bob Ford explained that while Medicaid Expansion did not carry in most counties, it failed by lesser amounts in many cases than other measures.
Of course, Bob remains a glass half full kind of guy…I keep my hand firmly on my glass because I know those Republicans will steal it.
Let’s take a quick look at the Amendment 2 results by county. For example, in Mississippi County in the Bootheel (where the median household income is just 61% of Missouri’s median) Amendment 2 failed 892 “yes” votes to 1,660 against. The math was pretty much the same in neighboring Pemiscot County (62% of median) where the vote was 762 to 1,462. Meanwhile, up north in Knox County (75% of median) just 237 voted for Amendment 2 while 666 voted with the Beast. Dade County (southwest of Springfield), Moniteau County and Osage County (both close to Jefferson City) cast better than three “no” votes for every “yes.”
The amendment also failed in Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln and Warren counties within the metro St. Louis area.
Most surprising to me was the vote in Adair County – home to Truman State University and A. T. Still University. Still University is the ‘founding institution of osteopathic medicine in the nation,’ founded in 1892. In other words, education, with a lot of emphasis on medicine, is the big thing in greater Kirksville. Yet, Amendment 2 lost 1,941 votes to 3,034 there.
Across the state, in the places where expanding Medicaid will result in the greatest portion of the communities gaining health coverage, the measure failed badly.
Yes, as Nicole Galloway showed in her successful campaign for 2018 Auditor, you can win statewide by carrying less than a dozen counties – if you carry the right counties.
Remember, the majority of the roughly 6.2 million Missourians live in just eight counties [St. Louis, Jackson, St. Charles, Greene, Clay, Jefferson and Boone counties and the city of St. Louis]. Take the people and the money connected to those eight counties out of the mix and Missouri would be asking for handouts from Alabama and Mississippi.
So, with the General Election just weeks away (absentee ballots can be requested and completed in late September), here’s my suggestion to statewide candidates: play to 10.
And, play directly to the voter.
Accept that Democrats will never get a fair shake in Missouri media. Outstate local radio rules and it’s pretty dystopian. ‘They’ are always out to get ‘us.’ In the big cities the bias is slicker but no less smelly.
Spend the money on direct mail pieces – preferably letters or items in addressed envelopes (at my house they always get opened) to voters in the ten most populous counties. [The eight above, plus Jasper and Cass.] One issue per piece, hang the Missouri GOP by their record. On COVID, roads, college funding and basic state services their track record sinks their cause. Point out that low taxes haven’t brought jobs or prosperity. Remind voters that Republicans have controlled the legislature for a generation and their elected Governor didn’t even complete half his term before he ran away. And now, his accidency, the current governor spends tens of thousands of dollars a day on a Special Session of the Legislature to give him campaign commercial sound bites.
I have great confidence in Donald Trump turning the bath water yellow. Just as Republicans call all Democrats socialists (horribly misapplying the term), let’s call all Republicans puppets always doing Trump’s bidding. Again, play to the 10 top counties. They don’t care in Bolivar anyway.
Glenn
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MO Median Household Income
https://enr.sos.mo.gov/PickaRace.aspx Amendment 2 Results
https://www.missouri-demographics.com/counties_by_population County Populations