Several friends requested posts on more uplifting, positive topics: this won’t be one.
Between the nonchalance of the Trump administration and minefields laid by the pandemic, the 2020 Census failed. The reliance on most Americans going on-line to complete their questionnaires – always dubious – proved unworkable, missing millions and millions of Americans. Thanks to COVID-19, the traditional door to door follow-up never materialized in many, many places.
The result? A disaster. The required accurate count is not possible with the data the government collected.
This puts all states and local governments in an impossible place. They must adjust boundaries to of all legislative districts (down to city council seats) to insure that all districts enjoy near identical numbers within a government. In many cases these new districts must be drawn and approved prior to candidate filings beginning at the end of this year. Yet…
- The detailed census data due this spring won’t be available until September 30, 2021, leaving governments scant time to adjust districts.
- The numbers probably won’t be accurate enough to survive court challenges.
The State Of Ohio filed suit in federal court last week, the first of many expected actions against the census. If the challenges prevail, alas, the alternative is not a hard recount but guesses at better numbers.
Meanwhile, back in Missouri, we’ll make a bad situation worse: voters replaced Clean Missouri’s never implemented independent demographer system with a scheme devised by Republicans to preserve their advantages.
Plus, we know that shifts in population location will again impact the political power balance in this state.
For example, as late as the 2000 census Congressional lines could be manipulated to center two safe Democratic seats on St. Louis City – Clay in the First District and Carnahan in the Third (in 2008). Alas, the city’s population has been plummeting for 80 years. The city’s true 2020 population probably hovered about 305,000 residents. I expect the book number derived from the census – before modifications – to be around 285,000 people. With a Missouri Congressional seat in 2022 requiring about 760,000, well, the city becomes a ‘make weight’ while St. Charles County (402,000 people [ https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/stcharlescountymissouri/PST120219 ]) will likely get control of a seat.
At the state level, a state senate seat will include about 180,000 residents and a rep seat around 37,400. That puts the city in danger of only centering one senate seat, instead of two. Plus, the city and inner suburbs of St. Louis County will probably yield two – maybe three – state rep seats to St. Charles and Jefferson counties, meaning a shift to areas now more likely to vote Republican. A loss of a rep seat from greater Kansas City to the eastern counties there is very possible too.
Put it all together and Democrats could see their meager ranks in Jefferson City reduced again by one senator or two to four state reps. (Basically, a 10% loss.)
Yes, nationally the Democrats are gaining voters even in formerly dark red states such as Georgia and Arizona.
Missouri’s recent history offers no encouragement. The sheriff of Ste. Genevieve County was a life long Democrat – until he became a Republican. Where Democrats once had a substantial number of elected officials from the Bootheel, across northeastern Missouri and in other rural areas those voters now prefer any Republican to even our best Democrats. Note how in 2018 a terrific state auditor carried Missouri – while losing more than 100 counties to a horrible, unqualified GOP candidate!
Making things worse, again, this redistricting process will move very fast. There will be little time for reasoned appeals in courts. Expected Missouri Republicans to use their existing power to increase their chances to grab more seats.
How can we stop this?
Tune in tomorrow.
Glenn