Most Wednesday evenings we meet friends to eat and play bar trivia. The contest starts at 7:00 p.m. but we try to get there before 6:00 p.m. – happy hour food and beer prices (we’re old), and, that gives us a chance to get good chairs.
As at many restaurants, many wooden chairs wobble or lean or just seem ready to send four legs out in four directions. Settling-in early lets us ‘find’ suitable chairs. (Too bad for the other people.)
Now, let’s compare budgets to bad chairs.
Start with the Donald Trump proposed – but dead in the water – federal government budget for Fiscal Year 2027, beginning October 1, 2026.
Despite promises last year that tariffs revenue will more than offset tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill, well, Trump now demands additional massive cuts in safety net and health care programs. “We’re fighting a war. We can’t take care of day care.” [Donald Trump, 4/2/26 The Hill] He also wants deeper cuts in SNAP (aka Food Stamps) and at least $200 billion in new cuts to Medicaid – as well as trims to Medicare.
Don’t worry. The military will still get $1.5 trillion for the year in Trump’s budget.
Federal revenue, of course, won’t come close to paying all the bills. The federal deficit will pass $40 trillion on its way to $42 or 43 trillion next year – on paper.
You see, Trump’s not inclined to follow federal law. There is a good chance he’ll claim recission powers to not spend all the money appropriated by Congress. And, if wants to do something – say, start a new war – he just does it and ignores the law and the budget.
Plus, Congress isn’t functional. Odds are again this cycle they will never pass a complete or even semi-unified budget.
The Missouri House of Representatives passed a $50.3 billion budget for the Fiscal Year 2027 beginning on 7/1/26. That’s over a billion below what Governor Mike Kehoe presented. Not that it matters.
Last spring the legislature passed the budget for the current year. This winter they had to add $3.2 billion in supplemental money to pay the bills the state must pay. [Missouri Independent 3/5/26] The current $50 billion budget proposal trims more money from “core” (existing items considered essential), short changes schools and colleges, defers necessary maintenance and repairs to state building (including the Capitol), will probably cut funding for disabled citizens and still winds-up consuming virtually all of the state’s nest egg. A few years back Missouri had $8 billion in the bank…the last of that stash will get spent before the legislature returns to Jefferson City in January 2027.
The third leg? Local – county and municipal – budgets. The state provides very little money to local governments. Now targeted federal funds for roads and such are getting shaved. That leaves local officials needing money from property taxes and sales taxes.
A few problems…
- Property tax revenue is shrinking because the state gave us seniors property tax freezes, meaning that tax revenue source won’t keep pace with inflation.
- More and more people shop on-line. Sales tax collection from internet sales is spotty, and, many places (such as St. Louis County) have never enacted law to even collect ‘use taxes’ on those sales.
- Municipal government obligations, such as police services, keep costing more. Yes, law enfacement and other local employes deserve a fair and living wage. Yet competition for workers pushes those wages up much, much faster than inflation.
Note how the City Of St. Louis police board (appointed by the governor) wants to jump city cop salary costs by 96% in the next budget year! [KMOV 2/25/26] Of course, when one department ups its officer pay others must increase their rates or risk losing trained police.
Finally, the last budget leg: yours!
No matter what they cost we must buy electricity, gasoline, food, medicine and other essentials. Perhaps we resist putting a half gallon (or, 42 ounces) of ice cream in the cart but, well, produce and protein are required. Most of us can expect real, everyday inflation (not the hypothetical number reported by Washington) to keep increasing. And, when state and federal governments pay for less, we will all get stuck with more of the bill. Higher co-pays for prescriptions and doctors to start. Privatized services – even privatized parks – are under discussion.
Plus, we’ll pay more for less. For example, this year’s chocolate bunny for the grand nephew was an ounce smaller and a dollar more than last Easter’s.
We know the score, we lose.
Oh, at the bar we can manipulate the system to get sturdy chairs. Still, I fear some chairs will break.
Glenn Koenen
Photo by www.kaboompics.com: https://www.pexels.com/photo/woman-using-a-calculator-6214840/