Can we get there from here?
Missouri ended the First Quarter of the state Fiscal Year 2019 with very discouraging numbers. At the end of September, Year To Date general revenue collections were down 3.1% from last year’s weak numbers.
The big mover of tax revenue: Individual Income Tax. According to the end of September report, July, August and September income tax revenue was down 2.8%. While sales tax money was up 2.3% for the new year, well, that’s not enough to offset weak income tax revenue.
Now, as reported on the St. Louis Post Dispatch website, budget director Dan Haug claimed that the significantly lower revenue would not cause spending cuts: in Fiscal Year 2018 “Budget writers had planned on revenue growing by 1.9% percent last year , but the final figure was closer to 5 percent. ‘That’s given us a big cushion…’Haug said.”
Let’s recall reality.
At the end of 11 months of FY 2018 state income was up just 2.1% Year To Date. Miracle of miracles, a month later year to date state revenue was up 5%.
That’s akin to a semi-tractor barreling down I-70 at 85 miles per hour suddenly making a 90° turn and stopping in a parking space. Yeah, it happens all the time.
My best guess is that, yes, Missouri will need to slice approved spending. Since so much has been leaned-down in recent years, I expect much of the new money to be saved will come from education spending. And, I expect those cuts to be announced on Wednesday morning, November 7, 2018.
May, June & September revenue report news releases at https://oa.mo.gov/commissioners-office/news ]
Glenn