Remember this classic quote: Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results
The first to say that quote (or something close) is a matter of contention. In Missouri’s Capitol, alas, insanity so described is Standard Operating Procedure.
Let’s look at the latest incarnation…
On the last Friday of the year, Governor Mike Parson issued a press release, saying in part:
Jefferson City — Gov. Parson with House Budget Committee Chairman Scott Fitzpatrick and Senate Appropriations Chairman Dan Brown announced the Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020) Consensus Revenue Estimate (CRE). The annual CRE…is one of the basic assumptions the Governor and General Assembly use to build a balanced budget.
The key figure in the CRE is the projected general revenue collections for FY2020. Net general revenue collections in FY2020 are estimated to be $9.822 billion…The estimate for FY2020 assumes growth of 2.0%.
— Missouri press release
Let’s review.
Missouri finishes the sixth month of the current Fiscal Year (FY2019) on Monday. At the end of five months actual General Revenue, sorry to say, stood at 5% below the previous year, meaning the FY2019 CRE (which counted on significant growth in General Revenue) has been shot to hell. Next week, at the halfway turn, I don’t expect major changes in Missouri’s revenue trend to be announced.
Short of two concurrent miracles – Missouri employers handing-out 5% raises to all their workers next month and workers spending every new penny on stuff hit by Missouri sales tax – the state has virtually no chance of meeting this fiscal year’s target. Sometime in the first months of 2019, the accidental governor will be forced to cut funds from already strained programs which educate and help Missouri citizens.
Next year’s probable financial word: Recession
Congress in 2019: Why members should prepare for a likely recession. Based on history and recent data, there is little doubt that the American economy will weaken in 2019 as it enters the final stage of this business cycle.
— Brookings Institution
The Brookings report’s details are sobering and convincing, noting that – if for no other reason – historically it’s time for another recession.
Oh yes, let’s remember who runs Missouri: Anti-tax Satan Grover Norquist. Virtually every elected Republican in Jefferson City genuflects before the ‘no new taxes’ pledge.
Note that even with the strong support of Governor Parson and his cronies, last session better than two of every three Republican House members did not support the fuel tax increase placed on November’s ballot. And, a few of the few Republicans who voted to place the measure on the ballot explained that they would vote against the tax increase at the polls.
So, the accidental governor and his hand-picked replacement Treasurer (current Rep. Scott Fitzpatrick, R – Shell Knob), along with Phelps County veterinarian Sen. Dan Brown, do what’s been done before and announce a revenue estimate that probably can’t happen. They can’t raise taxes – even for critical spending – because Republicans don’t do that. This spring the legislature will allocate more money in the next state budget than can reasonably be expected to materialize. Promised services to Missouri citizens, again, won’t be delivered.
While the saying, You Can’t Fix Stupid, gets demonstrated every day in Missouri, I do wish they in power would try to do what’s right.
Glenn