West County Democrats

Legislative Report

November 11, 2018

 Federal Items:

Democrats will control the House – beginning in January.  November and December promise a dangerous lame duck session.  Among the items Congress must consider…

► A budget deal to avoid a government shutdown on Pearl Harbor Day;

► A renewal of the Farm Bill (which is mostly food stamps);

► Making permanent last year’s tax cuts; and,

► Several issues related to defense spending, including targeting funds for border enforcement.

Also on the radar:  a deal to allow the federal debt to climb by better than one trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000.00) over the next few months.  Remember, a core tenet of the “Freedom Caucus”/Tea Party for the past eight years has been a demand that the debt not be increased and that Congress only pass a “balanced budget.”

It is rumored that Trump’s allies will try to push through a middle class tax cut – essentially a 10% tax rate decrease for those making less than $200,000 a year – before Democrats control the House.

The Trump administration and Congress are creating a disaster in the education funding system.  Graduates who took jobs with the promise of getting loan forgiveness for their work are discovering that they must now pay back all of what they borrowed.  Bureaucrats are working to minimize the role of non-profit lenders (such as MOHELA in Chesterfield), forcing more students to for-profit banks and brokers.

The best guess is that total for all student loans is above $1.5 trillion.  The average payback time is 19 years.

State Items:

Members of the House and Senate may begin pre-filing bills on December 1^st.

In the days after the election conservative legislators promised to file bills to overturn Missouri’s new minimum wage schedule.

It is expected that lawmakers won’t bring back Right To Work in 2019 – they may push for it late in the 2020 session.  This would limit the time which opponents would have to gather signatures to force a vote.

Despite a strong economy, Missouri general revenue remains weak.  At the end of October (four months into the fiscal year), general revenue receipts were 3.9% below last year’s anemic yield.  The culprit is weak income tax yield – due in part to faulty tax with holding tables issued by the Department of Revenue after the federal tax cut: new tables were issued in October.

Remember when George W. Bush tasked Dick Cheney to find him a vice president candidate – and Cheney picked Cheney?  Well, after a “national search,” accidental Governor Mike Parson picked outgoing Speaker of the House Todd Richardson to be the new head of Missouri Medicaid.  The job pays $225,000 a year and oversees $10 billion in annual spending.  Medicaid cares for a million Missouirians.

At the announcement of his selection, Richardson promised that he would not expand Medicaid.

Glenn Koenen

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update

July 9, 2018

Federal Items:

Believe it or not, Congress is still at work – and doing all sorts of bad things.

While the media has concentrated on failures, such as the inability to make any progress on immigration issues, the House has especially been busy enacting a number of proposals to reduce “safety net” spending, eliminate most consumer banking and security regulations, and, reinforce the Trump Administration’s pro-business agenda.

The Fiscal Year 2019 budget includes a series of trims to domestic spending while increasing spending on new planes, ships and other big-ticket defense items.

The official blueprint for future budgets includes “real dollar” reductions of domestic spending by around 15% as part of a plan to eliminate new deficits in 10 years.

Oh yes, virtually all of the consumer protections enacted after the 2008/2009 free-fall will be gone by the end of this year.

And, Congress is quietly applauding EPA efforts to protect businesses rather than citizens.

Fortunately, there are tastes of hope.  The Senate recently rejected the deep cuts to food stamps and new giveaways to agri-business in their version of the Farm Bill by an 86 to 13 vote.  This improves the odds that the final bill will not include the worst of the proposals passed by the House.

(The House version would have reduced benefits to all Missouri recipients and forced about 75,000 citizens off of the rolls. Around $380 million less in benefits would come to Missouri grocers.)

Still unknown are the full “real world” impact of the Trump tax cuts and the new tariff schemes. Remember, it is possible that the cuts will reduce federal revenue by better than a trillion dollars while higher tariffs add thousands of dollars per year to the typical family’s cost of living.

The Supreme Court’s current majority endorsed a death sentence for unions in government workplaces, allowed continuation of the Trump administration travel ban, and, creates a way for many businesses to discriminate against gays or others they don’t like.  (The court did extend common-sense privacy coverage to cell phones and cleared the way for uniform collection of sales tax for on-line purchases.) 

The next court session will find an even more reliably conservative bench.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is still president…

State Items:

It is critical to remember that Missouri Republicans did not force Eric Greitens’ resignation out of a sense of decency or a respect for law.  The governor had peed so much in the swimming pool that the stain threatened to cover GOP candidates.

New Governor Mike Parson is much more friendly to the established order.  He will not attract national attention, nor will he propose radical changes to state government.  At the same time, he will not push for better salaries for state employees nor will he stand in the way of efforts to reduce taxes.

Pay attention to Governor Parson’s position on the November gas tax proposal.  Will he endorse the “largest tax increase in Missouri state history,” will he speak out against the measure, or, will he be silent?

At the end of May the state’s general revenue was 2.1% ahead of the previous May.  Miracle of miracles, by the end of the fiscal year on June 30^th the state’s general revenue had soared to 5.0% ahead of the end of last fiscal year!  That much, much higher number allows the next round of enacted tax cuts to take effect, and, allowed the new governor to undo many of the with holds enforced by the former governor.

Fiscal Year 2019 began on July 1^st.  While the new budget technically fully funds the school foundation formula and greatly minimized cuts to higher education, the downward trend in state money as a portion of total support for education continues.

The budget includes a very minor – $700 a year – across the board salary increase for lower-paid state employees.  That increase does not take effect until January 1, 2019, and, in many cases will be limited by increases in family plan health premiums.  (Targeted but small bumps for prison guards and state troopers were also passed.)  When the dust settles Missouri will still have the lowest paid state workers in America.

In what was probably an illegal, early action the state cut funding to Planned Parenthood on a couple of hours notice in June (before the action was necessitated by the new budget).  That means that current patients will appointments after that date will not be covered by the federal government grants the state administers.  The Planned Parenthood clinics served 38% of the women getting reproductive and other specialized care under the grant.

The Legislature passed a good volume of bills, despite distractions in the Capitol.  Among the favorable items passed…

Anti-Human Trafficking Posters and Education in key locations

Extra Purchasing Power For Seniors at Farmers Markets

Raising The Age For Adult Prosecution to 18

Giving New Moms A Year (instead of 60 days) for Drug Treatment

Among the other items passed…

New Accounting Breaks To Telephone Companies & “Help” To Utilities

Restrictions of Public Sector Unions

Prevailing Wage Exemptions

Not passed…

The “Guns Everywhere” Bill

Major New Restrictions on Reproductive Rights

Classroom Censorship On Teaching American History & Other Topics

In the end, the legislature did pass an extensive tax reform bill – House Bill 2450.  It became a Christmas Tree of good and bad ideas.  It actually raises revenue by eliminating the state deduction for federal taxes paid (as is the law in most states).  It makes a myriad of ‘small print’ adjustments in the tax code which will primarily impact businesses and creates the possibility that the individual income tax rate will fall

further in the future.

Stripped from the tree were provisions for a Missouri Earned Income Tax Credit and serious new tax reductions.

It is expected that Governor Parson will not Veto any legislation.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
April 9, 2018

Federal Items:

Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown and passed a trillion-dollar spending bill to operate programs till the end of the fiscal year:  numerous commentators expect this to be the last major bill passed by Congress this year.  The kitchen-sink approach funded most benefit programs and other social activities at or near traditional levels.  The Freedom Caucus was not impressed.

Note that Trump’s budget plan expects new federal debt of better than one trillion dollars a year – twice the rate of Obama’s last year.  The impacts of the Trump tax cuts remain to be seen.

Some ultra-conservative members of Congress are working (almost under the radar) to eviscerate benefit programs such as food stamps and Medicaid.  For example, traditionally food stamps have enjoyed bi-partisan support.  This year the chair of the House Agriculture Committee is working towards a Farm Bill reauthorization passed with just GOP votes which would reduce food stamp benefits by 25%.  (These cuts would be on top of the reductions forced by political appointees in the USDA bureaucracy.)

The Trump administration continues to suck 99% of the oxygen out of Washington.  What would normally be major administrative scandals fall into the shadows in the wake of Karen and Stormy and Scott and all the other characters in the White House soap opera.

State Items:

The Greitens Affair still consumes most of the energy in the state Capitol.  Besides the city criminal case and the House special committee investigation, it is common knowledge in Jefferson City that the FBI is digging deep into Greiten’s fund raising practices.

Right before spring break in late March, the House passed its budget bills.  The Senate will spend most of this month reviewing and modifying the House’s work.  Please remember that the numbers being used probably came from a Ouija session by top Republican lawmakers.  The impact of newly implemented state tax rate cuts, the sluggish economy, the trickle down of the Trump tax code changes, and, a myriad of other factors have made accurately predicting revenue impossible.

The House budget fully funds the school foundation formula (in its current, reduced way), mitigates the governor’s proposed cuts to higher education, and, finds money for a few pet projects.  To do that the state will continue to starve programs helping seniors – as well as limiting the Circuit Breaker tax credit to just home owners.

Among this session’s most interesting legislation…

House Bill 1486    Punishes adults on food stamps – and their families – if they don’t work

20 hours every week.

HB 1531    Gives insurance companies an easy-out (pay their policy limit to the court and

run away) in suits with high payout potential.

HB 1295    Allows semi-trucks to “platoon” – drive down the highway about 50 feet apart,

speed controlled by the lead truck.

HB 1936    The “guns everywhere” bill.

HB 1383    Requires both parents to consent to an abortion on a minor (while only one parent

has to agree to let a 15 year old marry).

HB 1266    The “Pain Capable Unborn Child Protection Act” to restrict abortion.

Senate Bill 564    Allows utilities to raise rates without Public Service Commission rate cases.

In addition, SB 617 & HB 2450 call for similar re-workings of the state tax code.  While both bills have touches of things many progressives want to see, such as a state earned income credit, in the end both would reduce state revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars each year.

State Auditor Nicole Galloway has found that Missouri’s gross revenue is more than $4 billion a year below the Hancock Amendment cap.  The Missouri Budget Project expects Missouri’s revenue situation – before any new tax cuts – to deteriorate in coming years.  The current proposals could widen the chasm by up to half a billion dollars a year.

Some form of tax cut will pass.

In the administrative trivia department, the Department of Social Services now required virtually all low-income families receiving benefits (Temporary Assistance, food stamps and MO HealthNet, for example) to utilize the state’s Call Center system.  The average wait time to get a call answered: 25 minutes.  (Many calls require a second wait for a specialized worker.)

Submitted by Glenn Koenen

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
March 12, 2018

Federal Items:

by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
February 12, 2018

Federal Items:

The new tax law is now in effect.  Significant changes to individual and corporate tax rates are being implemented, with the greatest savings – as advertised – going to the richest people and companies.   Unfortunately, many middle class and working class families may find their effective tax rate has increased due to changes in the personal exemption deduction.

Major funding cuts to safety net programs (including Medicaid and Medicare) will be required in coming years to help offset the impact of the lost tax revenue.  For example, Missouri may be looking at an annual loss of $2 billion in Medicaid funds.

Congress finds itself preparing for the 2019 Budget prior to approving a 2018 Budget.

Another short-term fix to the debt ceiling and budget spending authorization passed Congress in December.  They must re-visit the same issues by January 19^th.  It is very probable that Congress will never pass a unified budget for the current federal fiscal year.  The lack of a true budget has left many good programs – including the Children’s Health Insurance Program – in limbo.

While attention has focused on Capitol Hill and the White House, the web of ultra-conservative appointees to critical positions in the federal bureaucracy is having a tremendous, horrible impact on government policy.

For example, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is a conservative activist who had been critical of the Medicaid Expansion.  (She has been praised by the American Enterprise Institute for her work at reducing Medicaid participation in Indiana.)  The bureaucrat is developing new rules to add a work requirement to Medicaid.

State Items:

Last week the House Ethics Committee made it official:  the Missouri Legislature has different rules for white men than it does for black women.  Note that Senator Maria Chapelle-Nadal lost her committee slots and was reprimanded for an ill-advised social media post in which she hoped that someone would eliminate President Trump.  Meanwhile, on a party line vote, the House Ethics Committee declined to in any way sanction Rep. Warren Love who advocated ‘hanging’ (as in ‘lynching’) those who vandalize Confederate statues.  Further, as noted by Rep. Sarah Unsinger, the committee asked Rep. Love what sort of punishment he would accept before deciding to not act.

The House has already proposed 721 new bills and the Senate 319 bills for consideration this session.  Fewer restrictions on firearms, more restrictions on abortion and a variety of new rules for those getting government benefits are in the mix.

A proposal to eliminate real estate tax on every home owned by the same people for 30 years (and remove personal property tax on every vehicle more than 10 years old) has been proposed by Rep. Rick Brattin.  While the proposal sounds nice, it would devastate school district revenue: that may not be enough to stop the proposal.

Also proposed are schemes to eliminate or severely reduce the state income tax – without meaningful plans to offset the lost revenue.

Tax cuts passed over former Governor Jay Nixon’s veto in 2014 took effect on January 1^st.  In addition, Missouri will lose an unknown amount of revenue beginning this year due to the revised federal tax rates.

Missouri’s revenue streams are prone to disturbance.  Under the best of circumstances the flow of income and sales taxes may vary by hundreds of millions of dollars a year from the best predictions of state, university and private economists.  The estimated reduction in Missouri revenue for the next budget year ranges from $100 million to $600 million.

The smallest loss guess comes from the Kenneth Lay Professor of Economics at Mizzou and his colleagues.  The Missouri Budget Project and others lean towards greater revenue losses.

No matter what the actual impact is on state revenue, it is very likely that the legislature will be forced to reduce spending on education and Medicaid.  It is also virtually certain that Missouri state workers will not receive a pay increase in 2019.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
January 8, 2018

Federal Items:

The new tax law is now in effect.  Significant changes to individual and corporate tax rates are being implemented, with the greatest savings – as advertised – going to the richest people and companies.   Unfortunately, many middle class and working class families may find their effective tax rate has increased due to changes in the personal exemption deduction.

Major funding cuts to safety net programs (including Medicaid and Medicare) will be required in coming years to help offset the impact of the lost tax revenue.  For example, Missouri may be looking at an annual loss of $2 billion in Medicaid funds.

Congress finds itself preparing for the 2019 Budget prior to approving a 2018 Budget.

Another short-term fix to the debt ceiling and budget spending authorization passed Congress in December.  They must re-visit the same issues by January 19^th.  It is very probable that Congress will never pass a unified budget for the current federal fiscal year.  The lack of a true budget has left many good programs – including the Children’s Health Insurance Program – in limbo.

While attention has focused on Capitol Hill and the White House, the web of ultra-conservative appointees to critical positions in the federal bureaucracy is having a tremendous, horrible impact on government policy.

For example, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is a conservative activist who had been critical of the Medicaid Expansion.  (She has been praised by the American Enterprise Institute for her work at reducing Medicaid participation in Indiana.)  The bureaucrat is developing new rules to add a work requirement to Medicaid.

State Items:

Last week the House Ethics Committee made it official:  the Missouri Legislature has different rules for white men than it does for black women.  Note that Senator Maria Chapelle-Nadal lost her committee slots and was reprimanded for an ill-advised social media post in which she hoped that someone would eliminate President Trump.  Meanwhile, on a party line vote, the House Ethics Committee declined to in any way sanction Rep. Warren Love who advocated ‘hanging’ (as in ‘lynching’) those who vandalize Confederate statues.  Further, as noted by Rep. Sarah Unsinger, the committee asked Rep. Love what sort of punishment he would accept before deciding to not act.

The House has already proposed 721 new bills and the Senate 319 bills for consideration this session.  Fewer restrictions on firearms, more restrictions on abortion and a variety of new rules for those getting government benefits are in the mix.

A proposal to eliminate real estate tax on every home owned by the same people for 30 years (and remove personal property tax on every vehicle more than 10 years old) has been proposed by Rep. Rick Brattin.  While the proposal sounds nice, it would devastate school district revenue: that may not be enough to stop the proposal.

Also proposed are schemes to eliminate or severely reduce the state income tax – without meaningful plans to offset the lost revenue.

Tax cuts passed over former Governor Jay Nixon’s veto in 2014 took effect on January 1^st.  In addition, Missouri will lose an unknown amount of revenue beginning this year due to the revised federal tax rates.

Missouri’s revenue streams are prone to disturbance.  Under the best of circumstances the flow of income and sales taxes may vary by hundreds of millions of dollars a year from the best predictions of state, university and private economists.  The estimated reduction in Missouri revenue for the next budget year ranges from $100 million to $600 million.

The smallest loss guess comes from the Kenneth Lay Professor of Economics at Mizzou and his colleagues.  The Missouri Budget Project and others lean towards greater revenue losses.

No matter what the actual impact is on state revenue, it is very likely that the legislature will be forced to reduce spending on education and Medicaid.  It is also virtually certain that Missouri state workers will not receive a pay increase in 2019.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
December 11, 2017

Federal Items:

As bad as things look now, they will be substantially worse in 2018.

Both the House and Senate will soon pass “tax reform” – though it may not happen in time for Santa to deliver it.  The changes will become effective January 1, 2018 no matter when they are enacted.

The murder of the “Death Tax” is certain, as is a lower corporate tax rate.  It is considered very likely that high medical expenses will lose deductibility.  The Personal Exemption (which means the most of middle-class families with more than one child) will also probably not survive.  By some estimates, as many as 40% of middle class families could actually see their tax burden grow over the next few years due to these “tax cuts.”

The end of the first quarter of federal Fiscal Year 2018 is December 31^st.  Many inside the beltway types no longer expect Congress to pass a true budget for this fiscal year: the problem is not Democratic opposition, no, the issue is an on-going Republican Civil War which has taken Speaker Ryan and Senate Pro-Tem McConnell hostage.  Congress did act to avoid a government shut-down and increase the national debt.  Unfortunately, the clock stops again on December 22^nd.

The lack of a budget may be a good thing.  Ineptitude is preventing new, deep cuts to social programs within the Trump administration’s budget.  Paying for the tax cuts will require draconian reductions in virtually all social programs over the next decade.

Many routine bills are not getting pushed through the sausage factory.  For example, the re-authorization of the largely non-controversial Children’s Health Insurance Program is now three months overdue.  Washington folks wonder if the Farm Bill – a once every five years exercise – will get passed before it expires next fall.

The latest four-letter word in Washington?  WORK.

Spurred on by radical think-tanks, The Wall Street Journal and friends, Congress is moving forward on efforts to reduce disability and unemployment benefits, and, “strengthen” work requirements in food stamps, Medicaid and other programs.

I suspect this effort is to force more Americans to take extremely low-paying part-time jobs.

As noted by the New York Times and others, GOP members have already begun election year pandering to the party’s special interests.  For example, Missouri’s Ann Wagner is among the supporters of federal legislation to require every state to honor concealed carry privileges issued by any other state:  a Missourian could then – legally – carry a gun in Times Square, despite New York laws against it.

There is talk of a total national ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at imminent risk.  While such a law would probably be stopped by the Supreme Court, it would give Republicans a fig leaf to toss to their pro-life supporters.

If elected, Roy Moore will be admitted to the U. S. Senate.

State Items:

Better than 580 proposed laws have already been filed for the 2018 session of the Missouri legislature.  As could be predicted, more than a dozen involve abortion and another 15 create new tax credits.

Another ten measures deal with firearms, including House Bill 1382 from Rep. Rocky Miller (R – Lake Ozark) which would allow carrying concealed weapons in a church without informing the church: churches would not be able to prohibit guns on their premises.

Both the House and Senate have pre-filed bills aimed at ending or severely restricting prevailing wage rules.  It has been ‘suggested’ that the majority party may use passage of a prevailing wage law to force unions to run another referendum campaign next year.

Even before the proposed federal tax cuts, Missouri’s revenue was expected to drop significantly.  Previously passed tax cuts and tax credits; wages failing to increase at the rate of inflation; on-line sales stealing business from “brick and mortar” retailers; and, other economic weaknesses promised to force deep cuts in the Fiscal Year 2019 budget.  A $500 million reduction in General Revenue (an $9 billion pie) is possible.  Tax cuts could require an additional $500 million to $1 billion in cuts.

In other words, General Revenue could potentially be reduced by 16% in a year.  Remember that the two biggest uses of General Revenue are education and the state share of Medicaid costs.

Once again in 2018, Missouri will have the lowest paid state workers in the nation.

This has consequences.  To cite one problem, the Department of Social Services has concentrated their staff in call centers to handle client interactions at less cost:  last month the director of the department publicly admitted that call center staff were quitting faster than replacements could be hired and trained.  The average wait time before a call is answered in October was over 18 minutes, and, with transfers, calls lasting more than an hour were common.

Missouri has 795,000 citizens receiving food stamps, just under a million on Medicaid and tens of thousands more in smaller programs which must be accessed via the call centers.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
November 13, 2017

Federal Items:
Neither the House nor the Senate proposed tax “reform” proposals will advance in their current form: the eventual product will, alas, be bad for many taxpayers and businesses but good for the wealthy.
Senate leader Mitch McConnell reluctantly admitted that the proposals before the Senate and the House will not provide tax cuts to “every” middle class family – despite the promises of President Trump, McConnell and other leaders. Quick reviews of the plans predict from one-fifth to one-third of middle class families will pay more under the new tax scheme. Modest income seniors with health issues are guaranteed to pay substantially more in taxes when the deduction for medical expenses is killed.

This is by design: since just 9% to 10% of American taxpayers claim a medical deduction, that line item was a less painful target than home mortgage deductions (claimed by a third of taxpayers).
In Missouri, the prediction is that working class/lower middle class families will, on average, see their federal tax bill reduced by about $2.11 per week while the top 1% of taxpayers get an $800.00 a week cut.

While media attention has focused on the $1.5 trillion the tax plan adds to the existing deficit, the painful reality is that the tax plan pays for better than $3 trillion of its costs with dramatic cuts to public benefit programs over the next decade:

Medicaid $1 trillion cut
Medicare $500 billion cut (with no reduction in prescription costs)
Food Stamps $130 billion cut

In addition, over one million housing vouchers could be cut, Pell Grants are slated for elimination, disability and unemployment pay would be reduced and virtually every non-defense line item gets trimmed.

Congress wants their tax cut plan to be their Christmas Present to President Trump. The final debacle will be passed without any Democrats’ votes.

As the tax fight builds, less attention is being paid to the real potential for a government shut-down around December 8. The short-term patch to the budget and debt ceiling may not be renewed: many Freedom Caucus Republicans are demanding additional mid-year cuts to social service expenditures as a pre-condition to keeping the government running.

Getting even less attention that the debt limit, Congress is in the process of endorsing long-term changes to environmental policy. For example, more of the Arctic National Refuge will be opened up to oil and mineral exploration and extraction, and, federal approval of new pipeline projects will give builders the equivalent of national eminent domain powers.

State Items:
Like the majority of states, Missouri’s tax code is grafted on to the federal income tax rules. As a result, as noted by the Columbia Missourian last week, the federal tax cuts could reduce Missouri’s income tax yield by $500 million to $1 billion per year – a loss of up to one dollar in every nine in General Revenue!

Missouri’s Fiscal Year 2018 began on July 1st. State General Revenue through October is running below the level needed to fully fund the budget passed last May. Expect Governor Greitens, when he’s back in Missouri, to announce more trims to state spending.

The Missouri Budget Project and other educated observers believe the legislature must reduce state spending by hundreds of millions of dollars for Fiscal Year 2019 in response to the state tax cuts now in effect. Add the current year shortfall, the need for more cuts and the loss of dollars due to federal action and, well, it is inevitable that basic state functions such as support for K – 12 education will be significantly reduced.

Legislators can begin pre-filing bills for the next session on December 1st. While the majority party will provide bits of entertainment with their ideas, a few items have been telegraphed:

Pre-empting St. Louis City’s proposal to weaken marijuana laws
Requiring public schools and universities to let faculty and adult           students carry guns
Bathroom choice unchangeable after birth
Eliminating Prevailing Wage

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
October 9, 2017

Federal Items:

The House passed a budget resolution:  the core, depressing numbers were not the motivation for 219 Republicans to vote for the budget.  Rather, the process of passing the resolution will allow the Senate to consider the Trump Tax Cut under “reconciliation” rules where just 50 votes plus the Voice President’s assent are necessary for passage.

The budget for the year fiscal which began on October 1st requires cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps, student loans, public housing and most every other domestic program.  Pentagon spending increases dramatically.

While official ‘scoring’ of the tax cut is still weeks away, the first reviews by The Tax Policy Center at the Brookins Institute and others predict a loss in federal revenue in excess of $2.4 trillion over the next decade.  The consensus is that middle class taxpayers will see their bills drop by a couple of percent while the top 1% of earners will capture more than half of all the tax savings.

Congress is expected to have trouble authorizing necessary rebuilding aid to Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico.  While President Trump has talked about the federal government paying-off Puerto Rico’s estimated $74 billion in existing debt, that move is not supported by House Republicans.

Administration bureaucrats have begun implementing decisions which reduce assistance to struggling families.  For example, on October 1st the maximum food stamp allocations declined (by 1.2% on average) due to a decision that energy costs had dropped so much in 2016 that families were being overcompensated.

State Items:

The required mid-September Veto Session accomplished nothing – except to give many legislators an excuse for fund raisers.  The governor’s veto of the bi-partisan effort to retain home health aides for many people getting those services was not challenged.

State Senator Maria Chappelle – Nadal was effectively censured but not expelled from the Senate.  While the senate leadership threatened to re-visit the matter in January, it is unlikely that they will since the behavior of at least two House Republicans would demand that they also be censured and/or expelled as well.

Missouri’s Fiscal Year 2018 began on July 1st.  At the end of the first quarter, September 30th, state Year To Date Revenues were 1.8% below FY2017.  Add-in the projected tax revenue growth calculated into the budget and, well, Missouri revenue is close to 6% behind projections.  This gap will force substantial, additional budget reductions soon.

According to one reliable Capitol source, during one recent 12 day period Governor Greitens was in Missouri just 72 hours.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats
Legislative Update
September 11, 2017

Federal Items:

President Donald Trump made an intelligent decision: he asked the Democrats for help.

Thanks to all the Democratic votes in Congress, emergency aid related to Hurricane Harvey and a short extension of the debt ceiling (till December) has been sent to the President. It is critical to note that 90 House Republicans – including Ann Wagner and the five other GOP Reps from Missouri – voted against the bill! (Note that Wagner also voted against relief for Hurricane Sandy victims.)

Unfortunately, a variety of critical measures require action by Congress. That list includes a Continuing Resolution to operate the government after October 1; reauthorization of the Children’s Health Insurance program (CHIPS) and several other benefit programs; DACA and border security; a military spending plan which includes new troops headed to Afghanistan; “tax reform;” funding for Affordable Care Act subsidies, and, filling hundreds of senior positions in government departments.

Expect many Republicans in Congress to push hard for votes on the red meat issues – guns, taxes, abortion and immigration – to have material for re-election ads.

The double hits of Irma and Harvey may drop the nation into negative growth in the 4th quarter of the year. Trump promised 3% to 4% annual GDP growth was always a stretch. It is now an impossibility for Fiscal Year 2018. A recession starting this fall may occur.

State Items:

As the late radio voice Jim White loved to say, “You can’t fix stupid.”

It is possible that the Republicans will call for a special session to expel African-American Democratic state senator, Maria Chappelle – Nadal, while ignoring the call for lynching by the white Rep. Warren Love. And, the You Tube video of Rep. Mike Moon decapitating a chicken and yanking out its heart – to promote his pro-life message – will not draw any official action by the House leadership.

This Wednesday (9/13) the legislature will descend on the Capitol for the required Veto Session: most legislators are also hosting fund raisers in Jefferson City this week. It is possible that Governor Eric Greiten’s veto of funding for in-home services for 8,000 Missourians will not be challenged. While Lt. Governor Mike Parsons wants to hold a vote, the House Republicans seem to lack the desire (and the votes) to challenge the governor.

Talk is already circulating that next year’s budget may require an additional $500 million or more in cuts to education and other state activities.

Better than a dozen Republicans have been mentioned as possible GOP candidates for State Auditor. Many have said they aren’t interested but the prosecutor for Cape Girardeau County is looking for support.  Appointed to his post two years out of law school, Chris Limbaugh is the son of a federal judge and cousin to a certain radio host.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

August 14, 2017

Federal Items:
As noted in a syndicated story in the 8/11/17 Post-Dispatch, since the start of the Trump
administration, EPA actions against polluters have dropped dramatically. Scores of grants to prevent teen pregnancy have been killed three years before their end dates by HHS. Expect similar stories coming out of other executive departments in coming months.

Either by ineptitide or design, a tremendous number of appointments to critical sub-cabinet posts have not been submitted to the Senate. In the State Department, for example, a stated goal of reducing staff by 30% has been accompanied by leaving open senior leadership positions.

When Congress returns from vacation they face a series of deadlines:
► Fiscal Year 2018 begins October 1st. Congress must pass a budget or a continuing resolution.
► The Treasury runs out of borrowing authority this fall: some conservatives refuse to raise
the debt limit.
► Authorizations for military expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan are expiring.
► “Obamacare” insurance providers require promised subsidies, or, rates will skyrocket.

State Items:
Due to a tax cut bill passed three years ago, most Missourians will get a small tax break
beginning next year: the average family will save $42 while the richest self-employed will save thousands
to millions each year.

Despite threats of a series of Special Sessions, the best guess is that no more sessions will be
called – though a short session concurrent with the September veto session is possible.

Governor Greitens does not play well with other Missourians. While he has plenty of time to visit
with Vice President Mike Pence, he has had very little contact with legislators or other groups. Several
division directorships and other major appointments remain open seven months after the Inaugeration.

The bad laws passed this past session, incuding Senate Bill 43 which makes it harder to
challenge workplace discrimination, take effect on August 28. Jim becomes the Missouri State
Wonderdog on that date.

Right To Work will not take effect later this month. Enough signatures were collected to delay
that law until a public vote in November 2018: expect big money to be spent on that ballot issue.
At present, more than 90 petitions have been approved for circulation.

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

July 10, 2017

Federal Items:

While the media focuses on Presidential Tweets and Russian meddling, the Trump administration is quietly overturning established policies.  Air and water pollution and work place discrimination become more acceptable every day.  Student loan programs are melting.  And, the worst is yet to come.

Washington insiders don’t see a path for a ‘replacement’ of “Obamacare” to become law: it is possible that a majority of Republicans would vote to repeal the ACA without a replacement in the wings.

The Trump administration is expected to get many of the cuts to social programs included in the president’s budget proposal.  Medicaid and food stamps appear especially at risk.  Missouri could see a 10% to 20% cut – more than $2 billion a year – in Medicaid support.  Food stamps will probably require a state match, starting at 10% ($100 million a year) and growing to 25%.

State Items:

Missouri ended Fiscal Year 2017 with a whimper.  While overall General Revenue was up 2.6% (about 1.2% above the inflation rate), corporate tax revenue dropped by 7.1%.

Most all of the bad things passed by the legislature, such as work place discrimination, were signed into law or allowed to take effect by the governor late on the Friday before the July 4^th Holiday.

Gov. Greitens started the new fiscal year by taking away expenses he didn’t want in the budget:

► The Circuit Breaker for renters was cancelled.

► Transportation money for schools was reduced.

► The higher education allocation went back to the proposed 9% reduction.

► Scheduled repairs to state buildings were cancelled.

► Medicaid providers will get paid 1.5% less per service than they received last month.

In addition, the Department of Social Services, already on starvation rations, has been ordered to find $30 million in new “efficiencies.”

More budget cuts to this year’s budget will be needed.  The state must offset revenue loss from the implementation of the 2014 tax cut and several other small revenue reductions.  It is very possible that Missouri will collect less money this fiscal year than it did last fiscal year.

The current, second Special Session of the legislature is expected to run late into this month.  The governor and some important GOP friends have expressed a desire for additional sessions, and, Senator Claire McCaskill has called for action on Prescription Drug Monitoring.  The governor blames “career politicians” for “not doing their job” during the regular session, thus making overtime necessary.

The governor appointed a panel of Republicans to come up with a better taxation strategy: most of the draft report – which called for a state Earned Income Credit among other things – was disowned.

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

May 8, 2017

Federal Items:

While President Trump had just one major accomplishment in his first 100 Days, the next five really went his way. The confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court has been followed by the passage of a deal to keep the government running through September (thanks to a steep increase in the national debt) and House passage of the Affordable Care Act repeal, the American Health Care Act.

Experts predict the Senate will substantially re-write the AHCA: slashing Medicaid support, allowing states to abandon currently required medical coverage (such as for child birth) and eliminating the tax structure to help pay health care costs are DOA in the Senate.

Trump is now drawing his ‘line in the sand’ with the Fiscal Year 2018 budget. It is still expected that the administration will gut support for social programs to partially pay for increased defense spending and corporate tax cuts.

State Items:

The Missouri House and Senate threw the state budget across the finish line about 20 hours before the legal deadline. The budget going to Governor Greitens has something to offend everyone:
► K – 12 funding was approved at the new, lower Foundation Formula level (about $600 million below the old formula and almost $700 million under the classic formula);
► Higher education support went down by about 6½%;
► To save both the Circuit Breaker for renters and home health care, Senate will require professional licensing groups to give back to the state their working reserves;
► Missouri is choosing to not accept millions in federal funds so that efforts to de-fund Planned Parenthood can continue;
►Again in 2018, the worst paid state employees in the nation won’t get a raise; and,
► Most Medicaid providers will get paid less for their services.

Ironically, the state’s weak revenue reality may doom even that lean budget passed by the legislature. Based on Fiscal Year To Date Revenue thru April, the governor may have to trim another $25 million to $50 million from this year’s state spending. Next year’s expenses will probably have to be cut beyond the $550 million already slashed from state spending for FY18.

The problem? Weak retail sales (sales tax revenue is up just 2.2% instead of the 5%+ anticipated), implementation of corporate tax cuts (a 25.9% drops from last year), and, unstoppable increases in pension, Medicaid and other costs bring Missouri closer to being “East Kansas.”

Several high profile items – including repealing prevailing wage and allowing work place discrimination– may not get to the finish line by the end of session at 6:00 p.m. on May 12th.

For all practical purposes, the Senate is no longer functioning. Opposition to President Pro Tem Ron Richard within the Republican majority will probably stymie most legislation.

Governor Greitens is expected to call a special session to address Real ID.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

April 10, 2017

Federal Items:

Despite controlling the White House and both sides of the Capitol, Republicans are not happy.

The Freedom Caucus composed of Tea Party members has essentially taken Washington hostage.  They denied passage of Trumpcare, are demanding even deeper cuts in federal spending, and, are expected to oppose expanding the national debt:  without a debt increase the government will face a partial shut-down next month.

While Merrick Garland never received a hearing in the Senate, Trump’s choice for the open Supreme Court seat has been approved – after the Republican Senate leadership invoked the “nuclear option” to seat Neil Gorsuch with a party line vote.

The media parrots the GOP position that Gorsuch is a “mainstream” pick:  he is a pro-business, anti-privacy extremist.  Note his decision in the “frozen trucker case” [TransAm Trucking v. Dept. of Labor] where his opinion sided with a company which, essentially, wanted an employee to die from hypothermia in an unheated, broken down truck.  He also vehemently opposes state right to die laws, and, has written that employers have a right to invade employee privacy in shower rooms.

The Trump administration has scores of subcabinet positions yet to fill.  His billionaire advisors expect to privatize huge federal operations.  (The USDA Rural Homes division based in St. Louis could be sold to private mortgage companies.)

State Items:

The Republican leadership in the Missouri House routinely ignores Democrats seeking to speak on issues.  In the Senate decorum has given way to bullying, as happened last week when Senator Bob Onder spent several minutes yelling at Sen. Jill Schupp without action from the dais.

Senator Onder has proposed renaming the St. Louis Zoo as the Midwest Abortion Sanctuary Zoological Park to show opposition to the city’s ordinance preventing discrimination based on personal reproduction decisions.

With Right To Work, the repealing prevailing wage, slashing of unemployment compensation and forced arbitration for workers under control, the legislature has turned to court “reform.”  A clutch of bills inspired by the American Legislative Exchange Council are making great progress. As a result of these bills, Missourians will be at a greater disadvantage when they are need the courts to help them.

State Auditor Nicole Galloway reports that Missouri’s revenue is $3.76 billion below the Hancock limit.  Despite that elbow room, Republicans have promised no tax increases this year or next.

The FY 2018 budget passed the House, proposing $27.8 billion in expenditures.  The House fully funded the new, lowered Foundation Formula for schools:  the Senate budget chief plans to lower school funding to avoid possibly making the state spend up to $60 million more funding preschool programs. 

The budget spends about $570 million less than this year’s budget.  Higher education takes the biggest cuts, with the University of Missouri system getting 9% less money.  Public defenders are getting a bit more money – thanks to State Rep Deb Lavender – but their funding remains millions of dollars short of what most agree they need. 

Unfortunately, weak state revenues may result in an additional $50 to $75 million being withheld by the governor beyond those $570 million in cuts.

This year’s budget originally projected 5% revenue growth.  In January that was lowered to 3%, resulting in Governor Greitens making millions in cuts beyond what Governor Nixon trimmed.  The latest revenue report, representing three-quarters of the state fiscal year, shows increases in sales tax and personal income revenue while corporate tax receipts are down 25% from a year ago. 

Once again, state employees will not get a pay raise.  With the scheduled increase in their share of health insurance premiums, most workers will have less take-home pay starting July 1^st.

The senator opposed to Prescription monitoring has changed his mind, perhaps because he wants to derail the state-wide roll-out of Managed Care for Medicaid scheduled to go live on May 1^st.

You may have noticed that Governor Eric Greitens is most often seen in a blue button down shirt, a pair of blue jeans and a blue blazer.  A few veteran lobbyists are talking about raising money to buy the governor some more clothes, perhaps a few pair of Dockers, some nice shirts and a couple of new sport coats.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

March 13, 2017

The political scene in Washington and Jefferson City is so fluid – and often bizarre – that it is impossible to stay current without frequent visits to government and news websites.

Washington, D.C. Websites:

The Hill www.thehill.com

  Politico www.politico.com

  Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com

  Claire McCaskill www.mccaskill.senate.gov/

Jefferson City Websites: 

The Missouri Times www.themissouritimes.com

Jeff City News Tribune    www.newstribune.com

Kansas City Star www.kansascity.com

MO House www.house.mo.gov

MO Senate www.senate.mo.gov

Federal Items:

President Trump’s staff has issued White House press credentials to The Gateway Pundit.

The president continues to rule through Executive Orders.  A complete budget proposal and a package of other legislative priorities has yet to be completed.

The House of Representatives has enough votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act but they have no consensus on a replacement system.  “Scoring” – a clear price tag and list of impacts – of the current GOP proposal is expected to be issued on 3/13/17.

The Treasury Secretary has asked Congress to expand the debt ceiling: many House members oppose covering the growing national debt. 

State Items:

Each week the Missouri legislature advances more anti-worker bills.  Unemployment pay will be limited to 13 weeks.  Worker comp will be harder to get and payments will generally be lower.  Bills to abolish prevailing wage are expected to pass.  More workers will be forced into arbitration (instead of court), and, employers will have more legal opportunities to discriminate against workers for non-work related reasons. 

The Republican leadership expects to have a bill prohibiting the St. Louis city minimum wage increase on Governor Greiten’s desk by St. Patrick’s Day.

The FY 2018 budget is under review.  Several committees in the House are expected to go lower than the Governor’s recommendations to make room for pet projects, and, to help fund additional tax cuts for corporations.  For example, money for free ACT testing and other standardized tests has been cut from the working budget for K – 12 education.

Multiple efforts to end “Circuit Breaker” tax rebates for seniors are under consideration.

The February revenue report showed that revenue from corporate taxes was down 26.5% compared to last fiscal year.  Revenue is not tracking high enough to fund the current budget: additional cuts can be expected to this year’s spending.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

February 13, 2017

The crazed environments of Washington and Jefferson City in this age of Republicans make it impossible to even list all the issues in play.  I suggest that concerned citizens get into the routine of visiting a series of generally reliable websites to stay current.

Washington News:

The Hill www.thehill.com 

Politico www.politico.com 

Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com

Jefferson City Happenings:

The Missouri Times www.themissouritimes.com

Jeff City News Tribune    www.newstribune.com

Kansas City Star www.kansascity.com (look for Jason Hancock articles)

Federal Items:

President Trump (as of February 9^th) has issued 23 Executive Orders, many – as last week’s Bloomberg Business Week noted – “hastily drafted, legally dubious, economically destabilizing…”

The twentieth order stopped implementation of a rule to require those giving financial advice for government monitored retirement accounts to follow the Fiduciary Rule, meaning they had to act in the best interest of the client:  Rep. Ann Wagner vehemently opposed that requirement, saying that through Trump’s order, “we are returning to the American people, low and middle income investors and retirees, their control of their retirement savings.”  [AP coverage]  Without the rule, which had been scheduled to take effect this spring, financial advisors can sell products which generate the highest fees and commission for them without disclosing that information to the investor.

While Republicans had no qualms about denying President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court a hearing, they demand that Democrats give Trump’s pick a quick hearing and approval.

It appears probable that the Affordable Care Act will be gutted and left to die before a comprehensive replacement system is announced.  And, legislation to block grant Medicaid funding to the states seems to be on-track for active consideration this year.

The House will be in session 145 days in 2017 – a major increase from the 114 days in 2016.

State Items:

The anti-worker agenda demanded by David Humphreys is being passed – over strong Democratic objections – step by step.  Previous promises (to exempt police and fire unions from rules, for example) are not being honored.

The Republican leadership is able to bull through harsher legislation than expected because they are not seeking major consensus among their caucus:  many anti-worker bills are being passed with just 90 votes in the House, well short of the 114 often seen last year.

The FY 2018 budget appears to over estimate state revenue.  And, new efforts to further cut taxes on businesses will dig the hole deeper.  Higher education again gets the deepest cuts.

Key department director appointments have yet to be announced by Governor Greitens.  Fortunately, he is finding time to train with first responders and do push-up with the National Guard.

By February 9^th House members had filed 885 bills and senators 412.

Missouri House bills can be found at http://www.house.mo.gov/billlist.aspx

Missouri Senate bills can be found at http://www.senate.mo.gov/17info/BTS_Web/BillList.aspx?SessionType=R

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

January 9, 2017

Federal Items:

We all get to witness what happens when the dog catches the car it’s chasing.

The Trump administration gets to juggle chain saws as they try to appease the Freedom Caucus (Tea Party), evangelical hardliners and the billionaires boys club in the new cabinet.

By March the new Congress and President must create consensus around a plan to keep the government operating through September 30^th, with a budget plan for the next Fiscal Year in place early this Spring.

Among the budget items likely to advance…

● Tax cuts for businesses, led by a striking cut in the corporate tax rate;

● Tax cuts for individuals, with most benefits purposely targeting higher-income folks;

● The wall; and,

● Specific import duties, probably on cars and other consumer items.

Other promises may be harder to keep.  For example, the President-elect has called for increasing the Navy by about 80 warships – an idea with a hard cost of $5 billion per year for ship construction for a decade and billions more for annual operating expenses. 

Congress, meanwhile, promises to repeal the Affordable Care Act – probably before a replacement system is ready.  Efforts to cut government spending on entitlements are all over Capitol Hill.  While the new President has not endorsed cuts to Social Security and Medicare, it is probable he will accept some trims as part of packages of reforms.  Many in the social service community expect Medicaid, food stamps, housing assistance and other benefit programs to be converted to block grants or have their funding frozen.

The Senate Republican leadership – which has not held hearings on most of the Obama administration’s candidates for 84 open federal judgeships – now claims Democrats will be obstructionists if they do not automatically approve all Trump candidates for courts, the cabinet and the bureaucracy.

And, last week House decorum may have been fatally stabbed.  Lacy Clay, like every other member of Congress, has the ability to post a limited amount of artwork in secondary public areas of the Capitol complex through the Congressional Art Competition:  Rep. Duncan Hunter (R – CA) physically removed from a wall a painting a St. Louis committee had chosen as the winner in Lacy Clay’s local, annual competition.  Fox News, of course, praised Hunter’s action.  No action has been taken against Rep. Hunter by the GOP leadership.   

To see all of the 2016 competition winners, visit http://conginst.org/art-competition/?compYear=2016&state=all

In a similar move, House Republicans have resurrected a procedural rule from 1876 which allows members of Congress to specifically de-fund any particular civil service employee, or office, they wish.

State Items:

Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman is Governor-elect Greiten’s choice to head the Office of Administration, often referred to as the second most powerful job in the state capitol.

Key department director appointments have yet to be announced but the incoming governor has found time to work-out with state patrol cadets, members of the national guard, and the current KC police academy class.

The Republican leadership in the Senate has already discounted the Governor-elect’s call for ethics reform.  Greitens call for a one-year wait before lobbying for each year in office is a non-starter.

The legislature has promised to begin hearing this week on Right To Work.  The first House hearing is scheduled for Tuesday, January 10.  Prevailing Wage and other related issues are also on the fast track.

Covering all the bad ideas amid filed legislation would take most of a day.  It is very probable that more tax cuts – especially for businesses and high-income people – will be enacted, that several new tax credit programs will pass the legislature (including protecting country club payments from sales tax), and, that utilities will soon be able to raise rates for infrastructure improvements without a full Public Service Commission rate review.

Unfortunately for the legislature and the governor, the most pressing issue in Jefferson City is the massive budget shortfall.

Last May the legislature passed a budget based upon better than 5% growth in state revenues.  After passing the budget the legislature then enacted about $60 million in new, extra tax cuts.  As of the December 2016 report (half way through the current Fiscal Year) the net general revenue increase is about 2.2%. 

Worse, sales tax receipts in December 2016 were 11.8% lower than December 2015 (due in part to bad weather but mostly to untaxed internet sales).  Corporate income tax collections were down 26.5% for the year to date by the end of December.

In short, to meet the budget target Missouri would need in excess of 9% net growth in tax receipts every month for remainder of the Fiscal Year.

For a copy of the December 2016 report visit https://oa.mo.gov/commissioners-office/news/state-releases-december-2016-general-revenue-report

If the state constitution is to be taken seriously, Governor Greitens will have to slash $200 million or more immediately from state spending to balance the budget.  If revenues do not improve more cuts will be required.  Since the greatest deficit is in general revenue, education will have to absorb the greatest portion of the cuts.

So it should come as no surprise that the Missouri legislature has been singled-out by Mother Jones:  “Wasting no time, Missouri lawmakers pre-filed 14 anti-abortion bills for the legislative session…”

View the Mother Jones story at http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/01/new-gop-control-missouri-primed-anti-abortion-blitz-2017

Missouri House bills can be found at http://www.house.mo.gov/billlist.aspx

Missouri Senate bills can be found at http://www.senate.mo.gov/17info/BTS_Web/BillList.aspx?SessionType=R

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

December 12, 2016

It may be a while before we have good legislative news to report…

Federal Items:

Congress overwhelmingly passed – and President Obama will sign – the 21^st Century Cures Act, allocating $6.3 billion for research to fight cancer and other ailments. The bill, long championed by Vice-President Biden and many in Congress, picked-up a large number of hitchhikers (many lobbied for by the pharmaceutical industry) in order to gain passage.

A government shut-down was avoided.  The short-term “fix” expires in March:  Republicans hope to make substantial changes in the approved ‘road map’ for this fiscal year’s budget, getting support from President Trump on items Obama repeatedly rejected.

It seems likely that all of Trump’s cabinet picks will be approved.  Senate Democrats pushed through a change in the rules to allow approval of presidential appointments with 51 votes, voiding the de facto need for 60 votes to defeat procedural items.  Now that rule will be used to push through the bus load of CEO’s – and General Mad Dog – Trump has selected.

Remember the budget deficit blamed on President Obama?  Even conservative economists predict that the Trump agenda will add several trillion dollars to the current debt.

State Items:

Returning and new legislator began pre-filing bills for the 2017 session on December 1^st.

Several versions of Right To Work legislation have already been filed.  So too were many versions of anti-prevailing wage laws.  The combination of RTW and prevailing wage will quickly doom the ability of unionized construction firms to get work on government contracts.   Less tolerance of unions for government workers will also become Missouri law.

Among the other topics in the first week of pre-filed bills:

1.  House Bill 27  Phil Christofanelli (R – St. Charles)

Primary elections would only be open to registered Democrats or Republicans.

2. HB 31  Gary Cross (R – Lee’s Summit)

Taxpayers get a full deduction for all federal tax paid.

3.  HB 33  Cross

No business license required for real estate people leasing property.

4.  HB 82  Craig Redmond (R – Canton)

Sales Tax exemption for groups doing food preparation (such as delis).

5.  HB 96  Nick Shroer (R – O’Fallon)

If an establishment bans concealed guns, the owner assumes all liability if a

patron is injured by a weapon-wielding criminal.

6.  HB 101  Kathryn Swan (R – Cape)

All tax credits subject to annual appropriation.

7.  HB 118  David Wood (R – Versailles)

The state would have more authority to put Special Administrative Boards

in charge of school districts.

8.  HB 147  Tom Hurst (R – Meta)

Post-abortion fetal remains subject to burial/disposal rules:  mom would have option of funeral for remains.

9.  HB 154  Kevin Corlew (R – KC)

Property of seniors and disabled could only increase in assessed value at rate

of Social Security benefit increase.

10.  HB 163  J. Eggleston  (R – Maysville)

In prisons and jails only local TV channels and G rated movies could be watched.

11.  HB 164  Eggleston

Families could not get cash from their “cash grant” welfare payments.

12.  Senate Bill 1  Rob Schaaf  (R – Buchannan Co.)

Allows tax deductions for small campaign contributions ($100 or less).

13.  SB 17  Will Krauss (R – Jackson Co.)

Phases out corporate income tax in three years.

14.  SB 98  Ed Emery (R – Barton Co.)

Transgender students only allowed in locker rooms set by sex at birth.

15.  SB 132 Krauss

Reduces Missouri income tax rate to 5%.

A proposal to set a Missouri Earned Income Tax Credit – at 20% of the federal amount —has been proposed, as have restrictions on payday loans and Medicaid Expansion. (Don’t leave the porch light on for those.)

The Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry, long a foe of Governor Nixon, is enthusiastically embracing Governor Greitens.  The chamber is not expected to push Medicaid Expansion this session.

As expected, Amendment 2, which limits campaign contributions, is being aggressively challenged in court.  The state’s electric cooperatives’ trade group is leading the fight.

Governor Nixon trimmed $51 million from the state’s current budget at the start of December.  That leaves just $200 to $250 million more for new Governor Greitens to cut to balance the books.  The outlook for Fiscal Year 2018 is dismal.

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member

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West County Democrats

Legislative Update

November 14, 2016

Federal Items:

Congress has up to 16 work days left this year (beginning this week):  it is unlikely that any major legislation will make progress.

Looking ahead to January, it is expected that the new President will get a budget good till the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2017.

President-elect Trump did drop a small monkey wrench in the works be telling 60 Minutes that there are parts of the Affordable Care Act – coverage of pre-existing conditions and allowing children to stay covered till age 26 – that he likes.  (Most Republicans had campaigned on a total repeal of “Obamacare.”)

Senate Democrats have the votes to prevent approval of any Supreme Court justice.  The court choices publicized by Trump before the election were all considered too conservative to accept by Senate Democrats.

State Items:

Right To Work may be the first piece of legislation considered in January in Jefferson City.  I would not be surprised if it is signed by Governor Greitens prior to January 20^th.

All the bad ideas proposed by Republicans in recent year could become law in 2017.

School vouchers, accelerating the Schmitt income tax cuts, reduction in the power of the Department of Natural Resources, and new restrictions on the operation of the University of Missouri are all getting press.  Some union groups expect that the state will immediately drop agreements which encourage use of union labor on state funded projects.  Prevailing wages requirements are also expected to be killed.

Missouri continues to have trouble with its revenue projections.  While the latest monthly reports show gains, the overall trend line is not going high enough to match the spending approved in the Legislature’s budget, nor will it cover the ‘extra’ revenue cuts enacted in the last days of the session.

Amendment 2, which limits campaign contributions, and Amendment 4, which prevents adding categories to the tax rolls, are both expected to be litigated by Republican groups.  (Some Amendment 4 supporters said – before the election – that their proposal would not prevent an excise tax on marijuana if it is legalized.  Others who have studied the proposal said it would prevent the tax.)

Submitted by Glenn Koenen, WCD Member