The Beginning Of The New

In case you lost track, Today is March 97th

         — trending on Facebook

What happens next? We’ll find out.

Still, we’ve already learned a few things….

Our accidental governor refuses to lead.  Mike Parson and his inaction in the face of crisis has become a running bit on The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC.  The Kansas City Star detailed the differences between actions by the governors of Kansas and Missouri: guess who was the bad example?  There is no reason to expect Parson to grow into his job.

Curb side delivery lets restaurants die less gracefully.  Many eateries who embraced this new business plan have abandoned it.  I tried a local Italian restaurant’s version on Saturday:  after watching dozens of cars after me leave with food I finally learned they’d given someone else my pre-paid order.  It went downhill from there.  The entire hospitality industry will have to rebuild.

Local newspapers may never return.  After decades, the Webster – Kirkwood Times and its sister publications, the Riverfront Time and other papers have ceased printing.  The St. Louis American and others shrank as advertising revenue evaporated.  Will they return when we return to normalcy, or, will print melt away?

Never underestimate the power of panic.  Why stockpile toilet paper?  One day last week I noticed that every one of the many banks on Telegraph Road in Oakville had long lines for the drive thru lanes: a rumor stuck that banks may soon run out of cash, so… Panic feeds more panic.  Fear will dominate our lived and our economy.

Many people insist on acting stupid.   In much of Missouri crowds still fills bars and restaurants.  Closer to home, a couple of dozen teen boys played basketball on our subdivision’s court.  (All the area parks had closed their courts.)  Yes, many are acting on Rush Limbaugh’s and Trish Regan’s advice but a significant number of folks refuse to believe science or consider the greater good.

There’s no place like home.  Remember the Bruce Springsteen song, 57 Channels (And Nothin On) from 1992?  Well, counting Spanish, Russian, Arabic, French and other assorted language channels I have around 450 options available.  Alas, little is entertaining.  The news channels have grown extremely repetitive – and depressing.  I turned weeding the rock garden into an all day task.

The economic future is dark.  Each day the Missouri Department of Revenue issues its daily General Revenue Report…the most recent daily report is from St. Patrick’s Day.  That edition showed a 14% drop in sales tax revenue.  I suspect revenue needs to buy a lot more red ink before they update the numbers.  As Missouri government watchdog Jim Moody recently noted, state general revenue took a better than a billion dollar hit in the Great Recession: this situation is much, much worse.

Remember, better than three-fourths of Missouri’s General Revenue – used to pay for schools, parks and other critical stuff – comes from Individual Income Tax and Sales Taxes.  All the closures and layoffs slash cash flow.  That means the current state fiscal year budget can’t be funded, and the next fiscal year budget (beginning in July) has already imploded.

As a result, once COVID-19 sulks away we face a time of fewer jobs, fewer restaurants, less local news and much less government activity.  Expect the April 2021 local elections to include a lot of school levy increases as districts vainly try to hold the line. 

After the 1918 flu pandemic it took years for life to return to normal.  This go around, plan on a decade of pain.

 

Glenn