The Worst Is Yet To Come…

 

Missouri May DSS Benefits Report Issued

 Most Wednesdays my wife and I have a late lunch at a local bar and grill, enjoying the service of our favorite waitress (who also performs manager duties).

As has become tradition, I ask her how her day and week are going:  “It’s been really slow,” she now normally responds, or, one week, “This is the worst I’ve seen it in 17 years here.”

Most Sundays after church we visit a local deli.  The crowds there have dropped too – even on Father’s Day.

When times get tough eating out turns into a luxury for many.  And, yes, costs have soared.  Our average lunch cost grew from about $12.00 per person to $15.00 in recent months.  (Fortunately, my wife and I find coupons.)  Still, after watching what happened to restaurants in the 1990’s. after 9/11, during Covid Days, and, during the Great Recession, well, I think inflation remains a minor factor and we now see the dying canaries and the first whiffs of a recession.

Of course, most people want to work.  Our favorite waitress told us she’s working three jobs to try to make ends meet for her and her two kids.  Note the word “try.”

The next sign?  A surge in demand at food pantries as the unemployed and – a growing segment — the underemployed seek help.

Expect a jump in the number of folks getting food stamps too – except here in Missouri.

You see, Missouri’s Family Support Division remains plagued by a severe shortage of staff, ineffective computer systems and bad (really, really bad) management.  Remember, His Accidency never hires a professional for a senior job if there is a former legislator or a close friend available for the job.  That’s why a former Cape Girardeau area legislator runs MO HealthNet (Medicaid) and a former Parson staffer directs the Department of Social Services.

So, prior to this new recession citizens wait hours on hold – sometimes never getting their call answered – trying to apply for benefits.  With the increased need for assistance during a recession (possibly a 30% increase or 200,000 Missourians), well, expect the administration to downplay the impact because people who never get to apply never get counted.  If pressure increases, answer even fewer phone calls.  Ignore the crisis.  That’s The Missouri Way.

Now the numbers from The Monthly Management Report for the Missouri Department of Social Services, Family Support Division and MO HealthNet Division [www.mo.dss/re ]

May Benefits

                                          2022                         2021        

Temporary Assistances

  Kids                               10,656                            11,605

  Adults                             2,959                              3,114

 Total                               13,615                            14,719

  Benefits                   $1,305,400                      $1,415,859

  Per Family                  $  222.08                         $  216.99

  Per Day                         $  7.16                            $  7.00

 

Food Stamps (SNAP)

  Participants                    647,541                           691,375

  Benefits                 $106,087,489                   $158,036,280

  Per Person                    $  168.83                         $  228.58

  Per Meal                           $  1.82                            $  2.46

 

MO HealthNet (Medicaid)

  Enrolled                       1,274,730                        1,080,576

  Covered                       1,365,277                        1,087,045

  Cost                     $1,082,351,819                  $810,982,018

  Per Patient                    $  792.77                         $  746.04

  Managed Care             1,016,642                           825,631

  Premium Per Person     $  300.16                         $  264.83

 

Medicaid Expansion/Adult Expansion Group

          May 2022 Total             181,532 patients

 

That’s the number on page 45 of the May report, at first glance representing about 66% of the projected 275,000 citizens expected to be covered.

In reality, it’s 46%.  As the May report shows, it seems that a number of people already qualified for Medicaid got crammed into the AEG.

                                                May 2022             May 2021

Pregnant Women                     35,955                   56,549

Women’s Health                       12,430                   46,323

Adjust for the drops in those two categories and the number of expansion sign-ups drops to 127,095 – not 181,532. 

Of course, since expansion patients get more federal subsidies than traditional patients, counting everyone possible in the expansion category makes good economic sense.  My recollection is that the 275,000 new coverage estimate didn’t include such transfers.  Reality is less than it appears.

Glenn Koenen