The United States Department of Agriculture this week issued information on the 2025 food stamp ‘error rates’ of the 50 states and various U.S. territories.
Missouri’s numbers looked better than expected, with our boo-boo quotient at 8.67% — meaning better than one in twelve food stamp recipients did not get the correct value in benefits.
If we hold at that level Missouri will only need to contribute about $160,000,000 from General Revenue in the coming year to maintain SNAP in Missouri.
Some quick One Big Beautiful Bill Act math…
To save federal dollars, every state, et al, will have to pay a portion of the cost of food stamp benefits based on their error rate:
Error rate under 6% has no co-payment.
Error rate around 6% or 7% has a 5% copay.
Error rate (like Missouri) roughly under 10% has 10% copay.
Error rate above 10% has 15% copay.
Extreme error rate – like 14.67% in Illinois or 23.15% in Alaska – and you’re off the chart.
See the original USDA map chart attached.
Now, some among anti-hunger advocates (including me) wonder if USDA graded on a curve. Did deep red states like Missouri, for example, get an easier review than deep blue Illinois or New Mexico?
In any case, with the current rate, the Missouri Department of Social Services will be required to contribute about $10,000,000 a month to the food stamp benefit costs, or, $120 million in state funds a year.
Plus, as noted before, the OBBBA makes Missouri shoulder a greater portion of the administrative cost of running SNAP. That math gets tricky, but I would be amazed if Missouri needed less than $40 million extra of General Revenue to run food stamps.
Let’s remember that these extra costs will hit just as Missouri Amendment 5 begins phasing out the largest source of General Revenue, the Individual Income Tax.
Unfortunately, Missouri has an option: ending the food stamp program completely. That would mean around $1,200,000,000 per year in food money would not go to struggling citizens – and grocery stores.
No president has ever sought to end food stamps or make them state optional. Yet, advocates (again, including me) easily imagine the Donald Trump regime letting food stamps be eliminated in states or territories.
Excuse me, you wonder if the great voice of the media will challenge that draconian approach in Missouri? Sorry, making 600,000+ citizens scramble to replace food funds will barely make the news.
Remember, increasingly TV, radio and newspapers are owned by major MAGA supporters. And probably fewer than 150,000 Missourians even get a daily paper. Plus, the quality of those papers has diminished.
A quick example: the Sunday, June 7, 2026, St. Louis Post-Dispatch gave away most of its news space. The slim local paper included pieces from the Missouri Independent, Stateline services, Reuters, USA Today, Roll Call, Bloomberg News and the Philadelphia Inquirer. In recent weeks it has been very clear that just one Post reporter covers all state issues.
So, how much can one overworked reporter for a seldom read paper influence public opinion?
Of course, things will get much, much worse. Many of us are still waiting for the details in the OBBBA plan to slash and burn Medicaid. For every dime shaved from food stamps expect health care for the poor to lose $5.00.
Glenn Koenen