Dr. Terry Jones, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Missouri St. Louis spoke to a packed room at the monthly meeting of the West County Democrats. This meeting took place at the Union Hall of Local 655 of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union on Monday, November 14, 2016.
Dr. Jones has many years experience as a pollster and political consultant. He is the author of three books and numerous articles on the subject and was a political advisor for Jay Nixon in his 2008 gubernatorial campaign.
Dr. Jones focused comments about the results of the election in Missouri in two areas: Change and Voter Turn–out. Regarding Change, he reported that the number one topic that Republican voters cited during exit polling conducted by him and others was their perception of the need for change. In fact, 29% of those polled indicated the need for an outsider as a part of that change.
The second area of focus for Dr. Jones concentrated on Voter Turn-out. This he trimmed to three important observations.
1. Voters did not turn out in greater number in 2016 than in 2008 and 2012. In fact, using St. Louis City and County and Kansas City as examples, we saw 50,000 fewer voters go to the polls. In the aggregate, as urban areas trend toward Democrats, this hurt Hilary Clinton as well as “down ballot” Democrats.
2. Women did not support Hilary Clinton in vastly greater numbers as expected breaking about the same way as they did for the Obama elections. Dr. Jones indicated that Hilary did poorly with women voters who were under 40 years old. So ultimately there was not a surge of women in the electorate to help Hilary and other Democrats to success.
3. Turn out in ex-urban and rural areas was greater than in previous election cycles and these voters voted for Trump and the Republicans in some outstate counties by as much as 75%. Dr. Jones attributed this to a sense held by many rural voters that the economic upturn of the last eight years has passed over them. Indeed, he further pointed out that many of these voters hold jobs that are traditional in nature – mining, manufacturing, and retail etc., and these jobs have either gone away or have experienced prolific wage stagnation.
Dr. Jones added more intriguing “take-ways” culled from his research. For example, undecided Republican voters, who the Democrats had hoped to claim, ultimately “went home” to their own party and voted wholly for Republicans. Missourians and the population of the country in general continued trends toward deep polarization with most demographic categories showing double digit separation. Finally, Dr. Jones pointed out that it has been a very long time since one party has controlled all three branches of state government which, he added, bodes ill for social programs in Missouri.
Dr. Jones did, however, provide some hope for Democrats. Demographics are shifting toward the Democratic party in red states that act as immigrant magnets – Texas, Georgia, Arizona, for example. Immigrants tend to vote for Democratic candidates. His suggestions for our success in future elections hinged on our ability to speak to the needs of rural voters and to convince businesses and corporations in the cities and surrounding counties that their interests may be better served without the influence of outstate voters.
Thanks for the great summary! I like that demographics seem to be going our way. Yet I worry that the fundamentals of democratic government could change before the demographics.