Legislative Report
January 12, 2019
Federal Items:
As noted by The Nation and several other observers, the parts of the government shut down tend to be the ones most impacting everyday Americans. While a strange February ‘fix’ for food stamps has been announced, none of the 38 million Americans (including 710,000 in Missouri) will get any benefits in March.
So, remember that most workers not getting paid earn less than $45,000 per year. For example, acres of clerical support staff in USDA’s Rural Development office in St. Louis were not paid last week.
Also, prior to the shutdown deadline the House and Senate passed a proposal to keep the government open which President Trump had clearly signaled he’d accept – until Rush Limbaugh objected.
Prior to the New Year Congress did manage to get a few important items passed, including the five year Farm Bill covering crop subsidies and food stamps. Unfortunately, the money to fund the new five year plan has yet to be approved.
Best estimates point to more than one trillion dollars in new national debt in each year of the Trump administration, with the potential of an additional one and a quarter trillion to be added this year. (The total national debt is around 22 trillion dollars.)
Opposition to The Wall is especially pronounced among landowners along the southern border. Even as experts explain that a wall will not stop drugs nor end illegal immigration, Trump continues to insist that building The Wall must be done now.
Meanwhile, Republican commentators expect Senator Mitch McConnell and other senior senators to keep supporting Trump’s policies – out of fear that they’ll be “primaried” by ardent, Freedom Caucus style extreme right wingers in their home states.
State Items:
New year, old approaches…
New Missouri Speaker of the House Elijah Haahr (R – Springfield) promised in his session opening address that there will be no tax increases on his watch. He also praised the tax rate cuts already enacted.
It appears very likely that CLEAN will be attacked on two fronts. Court actions against the passed amendment will continue. And, the legislature is expected to place on the November 2020 ballot an “improved” redistricting plan which will undo most of CLEAN’s requirements if passed by voters.
As happens every session, hundreds of bills have been filed. While a lot of surprises lie ahead, a few topics seem to have traction:
SALES TAX CAP Proposed by west county’s Sen. Andrew Koenig, counties and municipalities would be limited in the rate of taxers they could collect.
INIATIVE PROCESS CHANGES A series of proposals would make it harder to place things on the ballot. For example, signatures from voters in all eight Congressional districts (not the current six of eight) could be required).
GUNS EVERYWHERE Last spring’s Florida school shooting seemed to stall the further expansion of places where concealed guns could be carried.
NEW ABORTION RESTRICTIONS Pro-life groups are already supporting changes proposed last year to make require doctors who perform abortions to spend much more time with the patient prior to the procedure.
Despite last August’s vote, Right To Work is not dead.
And, as reported by KSDK News, accidental Governor Mike Parson supports an American Legislative Exchange Council supported approach to make RTW law with, potentially, fewer than 200,000 voters approving it state wide.
House Bill 259 by Jered Taylor (R – Greene Co.) proposes a very strict version of Right To Work. It would also create a new level of legal liability for any person or group found to be associated with any violence or harm directed against a person objecting to organizing activities.
Instead of requiring a state wide vote or an action impacting all of Missouri by the legislature, HB259 allows for county-level votes on this RTW proposal. A “county governing body” or a ‘voter petition’ could place the issue on the ballot in a particular county.
“If 50% of the counties, plus one additional county, adopt the provisions of this bill, the provisions will become effective in every county in the state.” [Official bill summary]
Now, Missouri has 114 counties and the City of St. Louis, so, affirmative votes in 59 counties could make RTW law in all of Missouri.
The 59 least populated counites in Missouri, together, have less than 650,000 residents. Allow for typical voter turn-out and a 50% + 1 voter requirement, and, well, 200,000 people could make law for 6,200,000 Missourians.
Per ALEC, the “one man, one vote” legal rules do not really apply when no candidates for office are involved. Looking at states as an affiliation of counties (the way federal amendments must be passed by a super majority of state legislatures to become effective), a county approach can be done.
As has become the norm, Missouri’s Fiscal Year 2020 budget will be extremely lean – and may require less total spending than the current year budget.
Tax rate cuts already approved by the legislature will further reduce state revenue. Talked about tax increases for transportation and capturing more sales tax revenue from internet purchases appear to run counter to the wishes of the majority of GOP representatives and senators.
One proposed new tax may get traction: a significant levy on Sports Betting at Missouri Casinos. While estimates vary, Missouri could net $10 million per year by taxing bets on baseball, football, et al.
CITY COUNTY MERGER
With money, anything is possible.
Under Missouri’s Constitution as it stands, the first step in combining St. Louis City with St. Louis County would be for city residents to vote – by two-thirds plus one – to dissolve the ‘city as a county.’ That vote could trigger several other steps leading to a vote by city and county residents to annex St. Louis City (as a municipality) into the county.
Better Together is proposing an initiative petition drive to put a Constitutional Amendment on the November 2020 ballot to allow for creation of a new entity – essentially combining all the county into a new City of St. Louis headed by a Mayor of St. Louis, with a 33 person city council and a single police agency.
Rex Sinquefield has announced plans to spend $25,000,000 on this effort.
Glenn Koenen