A smart Captain orders “Abandon Ship!” before the water covers his feet.
Missouri’s Accidental Governor acts like a landlubber.
This afternoon The Missouri Times placed the January 2019 Revenue Report on their website. It’s hard to imagine more horrible numbers.
Net General Revenue collections for the month of January 2019 came in 24.1% below last January, $801.2 million compared to $1.06 billion.
That’s the worst month of a bad fiscal year. Year to date general revenue (the main source of money for education, as well as the state’s portion of Medicaid) is running 7% below last fiscal year – after Missouri budgeted for a modest 2% increase, meaning the gap is now 9% between budget and reality.
Income tax collections were down 32.2% for the month and are down 10% for the fiscal year to date.
Blame the weather? Well, that could be part of the problem but remember that receipts were tracking way behind the prior Fiscal Year before storms found Missouri.
And, critically, January 2019 reflected the first full month where every employer used the new, corrected income tax withholding tables. That change alone ought to have jumped the totals. It did not.
As noted by the Missouri Budget Project, the FY20 budget submitted by Gov. Mike Parson assumes the current Fiscal Year will end with a surplus to help fund next year.
Now seven months into FY19, well, expect Missouri government to go into the lifeboats on half rations. Each day the governor doesn’t order cuts the steeper the cliff. And, the legislature needs to make hard decisions for FY20.
Remember, the only revenue enhancement under even semi-serious consideration is the internet sales tax collection proposal, with luck a $200 million item. Essentially, Missouri needs five times that amount.
Fiscal Year To Date Revenues From January Reports
all numbers in millions
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Net GR $5,110 $5,490 $5,110 $4,960 $4,800 $4,570
Individual
Income $3,730 $4,150 $3,850 $3,720 $3,490 $3,280
Sales & Use
Tax $1,310 $1,280 $1,240 $1,200 $1,170 $1,140
Corporate
Taxes $ 250.3 $ 240.6 $ 193.1 $ 271.5 $ 286.4 $ 277.9
Other
Collections $ 237.9 $ 256.0 $ 243.2 $ 204.0 $ 196.0 $ 201.5
REFUNDS $ 422.1 $ 428.5 $ 425.4 $ 432.9 $ 350.4 $ 331.0
Source: Commissioners Office News
I was asked why the state issued a report with so many bad numbers. They really have no choice.
Put on your life jackets and step over the rail folks.
Glenn