Resolved: no census is perfect and in recent decades a number of forces have pushed down accuracy…
- Low-income people fear revealing where they live and how many are with them being shared with schools, landlords, city government and other malevolent forces.
- In recent years a number of anti-government zealots fear giving up personal information to the government.
- Undocumented folk fear government even more than the above two groups.
- Americans are just plain lazy and the lack of in-person follow-up during the 2020 census reduced the count.
So, of course, Missouri’s legislature is using lousy census numbers to redraw the lines, hoping to eliminate one of Missouri’s two Democrat members of Congress.
It gets worse. The population has not stayed the same. Each year the U. S. Census conducts a survey and published estimates for the population for July 1st of the previous year. Some Missouri examples…
2020 Census 7/1/24 Estimate
St. Louis Co. 1,004,125 992,929
Jackson Co. 717,214 727,302
St. Charles Co. 405,262 423,726
St. Louis City 301,578 279,695
Greene Co. 298,915 307,942
Clay Co. 253,335 263,370
Jefferson Co. 226,565 231,880
You get the idea. Basing new districts on that five year old suspect data will cause new problems, starting with wide – and possibly illegal – variances in population per district. Plus, remember that north St. Louis City is in a massive state of flux with long-time residents forced out of the area due to the May tornado. Since that bad day the city may have lost another 5,000 or more residents. But do they consider their current home their permanent home, or, will they return to the city in dribbles?
I plan to sign the petition demanding that voters get a say on the new districts. We turned around Right To Work, we can stop this stupidity too.
The better answer seems to me to challenge the new map in court. Yes, the census annual survey results are just well intentioned guesses. But they are probably closer to reality than the 2020 official numbers. And, the courts can address the long held theory that communities of interest ought to remain together. Do urban African Americans in Jackson County have the same needs as farmers east of Linn, Missouri? All are in the new Fifth Congressional District.
Want to know a secret? No matter which map is used for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections there will be major changes when the 2030 Census is published.
Unless Missouri can make incredible progress in getting more people to move into the state (and far fewer running away), we will lose a member of Congress. I estimate that Missouri will need a population of 6,350,000+ to have a chance of retaining eight seats in the U. S. House. I don’t think we’ll make it. The legislature in 2032 will have to decide which Republican seat to eliminate.
Pass the popcorn.
Glenn Koenen
Source of Header Image- The Library of Congress