Nearer My God To Thee

March 2019 General Revenue Report Shows Missouri Still Sinking Under The Waves

The Missouri Times posted the March 2019 General Revenue Report this afternoon.

(Neither the February nor the March reports have been added to the Office of Administration website where, for many years, those reports were first available.)

Well, the March numbers are not terrible.  The Year To Date totals still point to a horrific shortfall in the current fiscal year.  Please remember that Missouri is now three-quarters of the way through FY2019.

For example, Individual Income Tax collections – the state’s greatest source of General Revenue – in March 2019 decreased 3.8% compared to March 2018.  Year to Date income tax receipts are down 8.2%, or, $45 million to just $4.97 billion. (That’s barely above the YTD of $4.88 billion reported in March 2016!)

For the month of March Sales Tax revenue dipped 8.1%.  YTD sales tax revenue is up $4 million – out of $1.68 billion.

Corporate taxes increased 28% for the month (and, are up 7.6% YTD).  However, corporate revenue is about one-nineteenth the total of income taxes.  That good showing doesn’t keep the bow above the waves.

Oh yes, recall that some members of the legislature want to trade Missouri’s accepting sales tax revenue on internet sales (probably $150 million to $250 million a year) for the complete elimination of those corporate taxes.  The end result?  Probably $100 million less revenue for Missouri each year.

Total General Revenue collections at the end of March stood at $6.43 billion, or, 4.3% less than the total at this time last year.  Since the current year budget anticipated an increase in revenue, the effective “gap” is a tad over 6%. 

Again, the state has most of the fiscal year in the rear view mirror.  Gaining enough tax money to match last fiscal year’s total receipts is highly unlikely.   Meeting the revenue target for this fiscal year is impossible. 

The Fiscal Year 2020 budget is now in the Senate.  GOP Senators can be prudent and slash spending to a more realistic level in light of the trends evident in the March revenue report. 

It is more likely that the Senate Republicans will all ride their unicorns to work tomorrow – while signing Nearer My God To Thee.

Glenn