Professor Allan MacNeill of Webster University presented the truth about the GDP, the Job Numbers and the U.S. Stock Market. While these statistics are often use by politicians and pundits to exhibit the health of the economy, they don’t really present an accurate picture of the underlying state of our country.
Allan MacNeill, PhD
The Stock Market, for instance, may increase when conditions worsen for employees. Since 84% of stocks are owned by 10% of our population, they aren’t a great indicator of the success of the broader population.
GDP values all of the goods and services we produce, but it doesn’t measure inequality, leisure time, national resources used or unpaid labor (volunteers or in-home work.) Moreover, some of the activities measured may also be detrimental to the environment in which we all live.
The Unemployment Rate is most often used today as an indication of the efficacy of government initiatives, but it doesn’t correctly count part time workers or the marginally attached; wages or the quality of work. The labor participation rate (that considers discouraged job seekers) has been declining at the same rate as the unemployment rate, but that’s not considered either.
Today, it is more important to look at income/wealth inequality and the increasing amount of ‘precarious work,’ defined as unstable, non-permanent, temporary, casual or contract work. These jobs offer limited benefits and no assurance of continued work or income. According to the OECD, 60% of all the jobs created between 2007 and 2017 were these kind of non-standard work.
The reasons for this trend are numerous and include the decline of unions, growing power of Wall Street, globalization, the digital transformation and intentional corporate strategy.
This factor, above all is at the heart of the discontent among the American work force, and should be looked at closer for a practical direction to better address our future state. Restoring traditional work models are one option. Accepting the new ‘flexibility’ and building programs to support American workers with inclusive social programs are another.
It is important that we recognize this divergence and coach our political representatives to take steps to address the inequality in our corrupted form of capitalism and the emergent precarious work environment.
Legislative Update from Glenn Koenen
Federal Items:
We’re trying to figure out who’s going to be the most powerful person in Washington, D.C., and bottom line is, it’s either going to be Nancy Pelosi or it’s going to be Donald J. Trump. And that’s what this comes down to. — Freedom Caucus Chair Mark Meadows (R – NC)
The Republicans won’t share power. Instead of working with the Democratic House, the GOP controlled Senate opts for legislative gridlock. For example, the House passed an updated version of the Violence Against Women Act, closing the “boyfriend loophole,” and, in light of overwhelming evidence, requiring that firearms be temporarily removed from suspected assailants until the courts review the case. Due to National Rifle Association opposition, the Senate will not support the bill.
No one expects Congress to address the deficit, now growing at one trillion dollars per year.
Unfortunately, while the media expends most of its energy on the Trump Family Circus, the Senate and the federal bureaucracy insure that major, substantive changes in the operation of the government will long outlast the president’s term of office…
►The Senate invoked the nuclear option – simpler procedures to appoint judges with just 50 votes – so that Federalist Society ultra-right wingers will get their robes.
► EPA and other regulatory agencies spend every day reducing the “burden” on businesses.
► The Justice Department now follows prosecutorial rules premised on the sanctity of the president.
►Justice is supporting the efforts of GOP Attorneys General to kill the Affordable Care Act.
► USDA – despite tremendous opposition – is enacting procedures which creates new paperwork designed to kick 750,000 citizens off of food stamps.
►The Education Department is forcing more students into higher-priced, more onerous market rate loans.
The change in loan rules, for example, will impact today’s students for decades.
It appears that no matter what truths lie within the Mueller Report and other investigations, Donald Trump’s popularity insulates him from consequences. (Remember, latest polling finds that 55% of Missourians support Trump and want to vote for him again.)
State Items:
As Mark Felt warned, “Follow the money.”
Missouri is required to have a balanced budget. While governors from both parties have finessed that requirement, today’s accidental governor ignores the state’s reality.
Three-quarters of the way through the current Fiscal Year, Missouri faces about a 6% “gap” between expected and actual revenues. That gap is about $550 million, or, more than the total annual cost of the Department of Public Safety.
Next Fiscal Year looks even more precarious. Already enacted tax cuts will probably lower the state’s revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars. (Though some Republicans still support the Laffer model which claims lower tax rates result in more income.) It is also likely that federal contributions to Missouri and the other states will get trimmed. And, the cost of providing basic services to citizens will continue to grow at least at the rate of inflation.
The budget passed by the Missouri House last month is not possible. If the Senate does not make serious changes (lowering spending on even the most basic and popular items such as education) the governor will be forced to make extreme cuts this summer.
And, I’m sorry to report, very little is possible to help Missouri state employees. Again in Fiscal Year 2020, Missouri’s workers will be the worst paid in the nation. It is very likely – despite minor efforts to put more money against the cost of employee health insurance – that many Missouri state employees will have less take home pay in their checks next year.
In the Senate the few Democrats are standing up for what they believe. For example, this past week (with the help of a couple of unhappy Republican Senators) they staged an 11 hour filibuster to stall the Senate version of the charter school expansion bill. Previously they softened some of the changes in the tort reform bill aimed at helping corporations at the expense of everyday folk.
And, a few bills from Democratic Senators have been passed this session!
Meanwhile, the House tends to ignore even the best ideas from Democrats. For the first time in recent years, for example, no Democratic amendments were added to any of the thirteen basic budget bills while scores of changes from Republicans – many legislating through appropriations – happened.
With five weeks of session remaining, several “interesting” proposals still have legs…
- Allowing Bible studies courses in public high schools. (A GOP amendment to add other religious texts was soundly defeated.)
- Some guns in colleges. (Some staff could be armed but not students.)
- Abortion restrictions making choice virtually impossible, and, calling for an outright prohibition if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.
- Allowing charter schools in counties with more than 30,000 residents. (38 counties)
- Closed primary elections. (Must be a registered party member prior to election day.)
- No safety inspections until a car has 150,000 miles or is older than 10 years.
- Weakening the voter-approved minimum wage act with a sub-minimum for teens and exempting religious school employees from the minimum.
- Spending $100 million in General Revenue on bridge repairs.
Fortunately, some of the proposals in recent national headlines will not pass. For example, the state will not require every citizen over age 18 to own an AR-15 style assault weapon.
A few good proposals seem to have traction too. Some positive criminal justice reform acts designed to help ex-offenders and reduce the number of people in prisons have support from both sides of the aisle. Further tweaks to keep municipal courts from using low-income people as ATMs are advancing. Clearer language protecting consumers from “out of network” medical charges is also likely to become law.
One very good idea – a proposed re-working of Missouri’s income tax system by Rep. Judy Morgan, House Bill 1229, has not even been assigned to a committee for review. Morgan’s bill would lessen the tax load on working and middle class families while raising taxes on the richest Missourians, raising needed revenue for the state.
Overall, alas, Missouri still wants to be East Kansas.
Missouri Auditor Nicole Galloway released a report showing that the Missouri Department of Revenue really screwed up changes to tax with holding tables after the federal tax cuts. At first Missouri told employers to take too little out of checks. Then, last fall, they told employers to take too much. This confusion accounts for part of Missouri’s revenue shortfall.
So, what happened?
- The director of revenue was forced to resign – mid-way through tax season.
- The Office of Administration has stopped making their monthly press release on state receipts easily available.
Instead of posting the release on the OA website, as has been done for a decade, the information goes to a select few news outlets such as the Republican-friendly reporters at The Missouri Times.